“Figure” Forecast Survey: Base Salaries Expected to Increase by 4.2% in 2026
12.01.2026
In 2025, average monthly base salaries increased by 6.2%, showing a slower pace of growth compared to previous years. A further deceleration is expected in 2026: the forecasted increase in monthly base salaries is 4.2%, while total annual remuneration is projected to rise by 4.4%, according to the Forecast Survey conducted by the remuneration research and management consulting company Figure Baltic Advisory. The current forecast is more moderate than the projection made in the summer of last year (4.6%).
In Estonia, monthly base salaries are forecast to grow by 4.8% and total annual remuneration by 5.0%, while in Lithuania the expected increase is 5.0% for monthly base salaries and 6.0% for total annual remuneration. The most significant increases in monthly base salaries are expected in the business services sector (5.9%), manufacturing (4.6%), IT and telecommunications (4.4%), and financial services (4.4%). As in previous years, the most modest growth is forecast in the transport and logistics sector (3%).
The share of organisations for which salary increases will not pose significant challenges has grown (68% in 2026 compared to 60% in 2025). Overall pressure on wages has slightly eased compared to last year (72% in 2026 versus 76% in 2025). The highest pressure for salary increases remains in specialist and blue-collar positions.
“Overall, we can speak of a calmer labour market situation, but the question is for how long. At the same time, there are and will continue to be roles and professions where we see rapid pay growth,” says Dace Tauriņa, Senior Consultant at “Figure Baltic Advisory”.
An increase in labour costs in 2026 is planned by 81% of organisations, marking the third-highest result since 2015. This is driven by more structured and regular salary review practices, preparations for compliance with the EU Pay Transparency Directive, and ongoing intense competition for certain roles in the labour market.
Analysing organisations’ expectations for the business environment in 2026, nearly one-third (31%) believe the year will be better than the previous one. Compared to last year, the share of organisations expecting stronger business performance has declined by 8 percentage points. At the same time, the proportion of respondents highlighting high uncertainty about the future has increased significantly (17% stated it is difficult to predict business results for the year). As a result, the number of organisations not planning major business investments in 2026 has risen slightly (62% in 2026 compared to 58% in 2025).
High employee workload is currently the most significant human resource management challenge, followed by the need to improve labour productivity. Inflation and workforce availability in the labour market also remain key issues influencing pay decisions. In 2026, the most typical remote/on-site work model in Latvian organisations is 40% remote work and 60% on-site work-or two days remote and three days on-site. No major changes in the organisation of remote and on-site work are expected.
The survey data were collected in December 2025 through an online questionnaire. Participants represented 121 organisations in Latvia, covering sales, manufacturing, ICT, finance, transport and logistics, business services, and other sectors. Of the participating organisations, 25% employ more than 500 employees, 51% have 50–500 employees, and 24% employ up to 50 people.
“Figure Baltic Advisory” is a labour market research and management consulting company operating across the Baltics. Since 2007, the company has conducted remuneration surveys and advised clients on pay-related matters throughout the region. Previously, the company was known as Fontes in Estonia and Latvia, while surveys in Lithuania were conducted under the name Baltic Salary Survey.